Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +11.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Tavares wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.4% vs Novak 43.0% (+11.8%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 13-8 in 21 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 84.7%
Defensive zone
Tavares 86.0%
Neutral zone
Tavares 85.8%
Result
John Tavares favored at 85.3%
85.3%
14.7%
Tavares
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
8
(21 meetings)
13
8
Tavares
Novak
Last 10: Tavares 6-4 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
6
5
Tavares
Novak
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
5
1
Tavares
Novak
6 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Tavares
Novak
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (16,169)
41.8% (1,568)
+12.2%
Power Play
56.4% (4,298)
51.5% (134)
+4.9%
Penalty Kill
50.5% (624)
50.0% (2)
+0.5%
On even strength, Tavares has a +12.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Tavares is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (13,550).
Tavares shoots left. Novak is 43.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,093).
Home / Away
Tavares
Novak
Home
56.1% (10,525)
45.1% (831)
Away
52.7% (10,595)
40.2% (873)
By Period
Tavares
Novak
P1
55.0%
43.7%
P2
54.1%
42.8%
P3
54.0%
41.1%
OT
55.9%
57.1%
Final 5 min
54.7%
40.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
54.4%
Novak
32.0%▼
39.5%
42.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 16:21 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 06:21 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 04:09 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 00:36 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 19:13 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 03:55 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 3, 2025 | 2 | 01:46 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 4, 2024 | 1 | 13:36 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Dec 4, 2024 | 1 | 13:27 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Oct 28, 2023 | 2 | 11:05 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Oct 28, 2023 | 2 | 08:40 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 28, 2023 | 2 | 08:31 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 28, 2023 | 1 | 08:01 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 26, 2023 | 3 | 13:56 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 26, 2023 | 3 | 00:29 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 26, 2023 | 1 | 15:22 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 26, 2023 | 1 | 08:20 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 26, 2023 | 1 | 04:35 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 11, 2023 | 1 | 16:26 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 11, 2023 | 1 | 16:05 | Neutral | John Tavares |