Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (57.3% vs 56.9%). Look for Tavares on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 56.8% vs Trocheck 56.2% (+0.4%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 59.1%
Defensive zone
Trocheck 68.9%
Neutral zone
Tavares 59.4%
Result
John Tavares favored at 56.7%
56.7%
43.3%
Tavares
Trocheck
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
5
(11 meetings)
6
5
Tavares
Trocheck
Last 10: Tavares 6-4 Trocheck
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Trocheck
2
3
Tavares
Trocheck
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Trocheck
0
1
Tavares
Trocheck
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
4
1
Tavares
Trocheck
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Trocheck
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (975)
58.0% (666)
-0.3%
Power Play
56.0% (250)
64.8% (165)
-8.8%
Penalty Kill
52.2% (23)
43.4% (152)
+8.8%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +8.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Trocheck shoots right. Tavares is 50.8% vs right-shot opponents (437).
Tavares shoots left. Trocheck is 57.5% vs left-shot opponents (661).
Home / Away
Tavares
Trocheck
Home
57.4% (636)
55.3% (436)
Away
57.2% (612)
58.1% (547)
By Period
Tavares
Trocheck
P1
57.5%
56.4%
P2
56.9%
58.7%
P3
57.5%
55.5%
OT
57.1%
57.1%
Final 5 min
56.9%
55.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
57.3%
Trocheck
62.0%▲
55.5%
56.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2026 | 3 | 19:34 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 25, 2026 | 3 | 19:11 | Offensive | Vincent Trocheck |
| Mar 25, 2026 | 3 | 18:27 | Offensive | Vincent Trocheck |
| Mar 25, 2026 | 3 | 13:04 | Neutral | Vincent Trocheck |
| Mar 25, 2026 | 3 | 11:20 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 25, 2026 | 3 | 08:20 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 25, 2026 | 2 | 16:11 | Offensive | Vincent Trocheck |
| Mar 25, 2026 | 2 | 10:22 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 25, 2026 | 2 | 10:16 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 25, 2026 | 2 | 05:41 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 25, 2026 | 1 | 16:55 | Defensive | Vincent Trocheck |