John Tavares vs Zemgus Girgensons
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +12.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Girgensons on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Tavares wins 60.8% vs left-shot opponents — Girgensons shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 56.8% vs Girgensons 46.8% (+12.1%)
H2H factor
Girgensons leads 7-5 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 77.8%
Defensive zone
Girgensons 78.8%
Neutral zone
Girgensons 52.7%
Result
Zemgus Girgensons favored at 58.1%
41.9%
58.1%
Tavares
Girgensons
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
7
(12 meetings)
5
7
Tavares
Girgensons
Last 10: Tavares 4-6 Girgensons
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
1
Tavares
Girgensons
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Girgensons
1
5
Tavares
Girgensons
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
1
Tavares
Girgensons
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Girgensons
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (975)
45.1% (164)
+12.6%
Power Play
56.0% (250)
50.0% (2)
+6.0%
Penalty Kill
52.2% (23)
45.2% (31)
+7.0%
On even strength, Tavares has a +12.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Girgensons shoots left. Tavares is 60.8% vs left-shot opponents (811).
Tavares shoots left. Girgensons is 45.6% vs left-shot opponents (136).
Home / Away
Tavares
Girgensons
Home
57.4% (636)
44.6% (92)
Away
57.2% (612)
45.7% (105)
By Period
Tavares
Girgensons
P1
57.5%
44.2%
P2
56.9%
46.0%
P3
57.5%
45.1%
Final 5 min
56.9%
38.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
57.3%
Girgensons
58.0%▲
44.5%
45.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 12:19 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 07:11 | Defensive | Zemgus Girgensons |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 05:50 | Defensive | Zemgus Girgensons |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 3 | 16:30 | Neutral | Zemgus Girgensons |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 3 | 07:20 | Offensive | Zemgus Girgensons |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 2 | 19:12 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 2 | 07:24 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 2 | 07:12 | Defensive | Zemgus Girgensons |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 1 | 06:43 | Defensive | Zemgus Girgensons |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 1 | 06:38 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 1 | 06:28 | Defensive | Zemgus Girgensons |