Scouting Report
Jonathan Drouin holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Drouin 49.5% vs Cates 45.5% (+4.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Drouin 70.1%
Defensive zone
Drouin 58.1%
Neutral zone
Drouin 52.4%
Result
Jonathan Drouin favored at 58.2%
58.2%
41.8%
Drouin
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Drouin
Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Drouin
1
0
Drouin
Cates
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Drouin
1
0
Drouin
Cates
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Drouin
Cates
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Drouin
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (181)
45.5% (756)
+2.0%
Power Play
56.8% (44)
42.1% (114)
+14.7%
On power play, Drouin has a +14.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Drouin is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (136).
Drouin shoots left. Cates is 43.1% vs left-shot opponents (564).
Home / Away
Drouin
Cates
Home
49.5% (97)
46.2% (468)
Away
49.2% (128)
43.9% (449)
By Period
Drouin
Cates
P1
52.1%
46.0%
P2
51.5%
47.5%
P3
45.0%
42.1%
OT
50.0%
18.2%
Final 5 min
50.0%
44.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Drouin
44.0%▼
49.5%
49.3%
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
45.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2026 | 2 | 19:07 | Offensive | Jonathan Drouin |
| Jan 26, 2026 | 2 | 18:48 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Jan 26, 2026 | 2 | 15:50 | Defensive | Jonathan Drouin |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 17:21 | Neutral | Jonathan Drouin |