Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Drouin 49.5% vs O'Reilly 55.0% (-6.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Drouin 63.6%
Defensive zone
Drouin 52.0%
Neutral zone
Drouin 54.7%
Result
Jonathan Drouin favored at 52.0%
52.0%
48.0%
Drouin
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Drouin
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Drouin
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Drouin
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (181)
55.7% (856)
-8.2%
Power Play
56.8% (44)
57.5% (233)
-0.7%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +8.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Drouin is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (136).
Drouin shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.8% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Home / Away
Drouin
O'Reilly
Home
49.5% (97)
55.5% (616)
Away
49.2% (128)
55.3% (617)
By Period
Drouin
O'Reilly
P1
52.1%
58.1%
P2
51.5%
54.9%
P3
45.0%
53.9%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
50.0%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Drouin
44.0%▼
49.5%
49.3%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 19:08 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |