Jonathan Marchessault vs Ryan O'Reilly
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +17.6% FO% edge overall. Marchessault wins 40.0% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Marchessault 46.7% vs O'Reilly 55.0% (-17.6%)
Offensive zone
Marchessault 53.2%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 70.4%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 56.8%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 58.0%
42.0%
58.0%
Marchessault
O'Reilly
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Marchessault
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
35.3% (34)
55.7% (856)
-20.4%
Power Play
66.7% (3)
57.5% (233)
+9.2%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +20.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Marchessault is 40.0% vs left-shot opponents (25).
Marchessault shoots right. O'Reilly is 54.9% vs right-shot opponents (530).
Home / Away
Marchessault
O'Reilly
Home
40.0% (25)
55.5% (616)
Away
33.3% (12)
55.3% (617)
By Period
Marchessault
O'Reilly
P1
50.0%
58.1%
P2
30.8%
54.9%
P3
22.2%
53.9%
OT
100.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
12.5%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Marchessault
36.0%▲
32.5%
37.8%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.4%