Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +14.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on offensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Nazar wins 44.2% vs left-shot opponents — Toews shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nazar 47.3% vs Toews 60.4% (-14.6%)
H2H factor
Toews leads 14-3 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Nazar 91.9%
Defensive zone
Nazar 81.9%
Neutral zone
Nazar 92.2%
Result
Frank Nazar favored at 89.7%
89.7%
10.3%
Nazar
Toews
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
14
(17 meetings)
3
14
Nazar
Toews
Last 10: Nazar 1-9 Toews
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
1
6
Nazar
Toews
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toews
0
4
Nazar
Toews
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toews
2
4
Nazar
Toews
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nazar
Toews
Edge
Even Strength
47.2% (574)
62.6% (728)
-15.4%
Power Play
51.0% (143)
59.4% (143)
-8.4%
Penalty Kill
30.2% (43)
46.9% (32)
-16.7%
On penalty kill, Toews has a +16.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toews shoots left. Nazar is 44.2% vs left-shot opponents (536).
Nazar shoots right. Toews is 71.3% vs right-shot opponents (303).
Home / Away
Nazar
Toews
Home
45.0% (329)
61.1% (455)
Away
48.5% (431)
62.1% (448)
By Period
Nazar
Toews
P1
47.8%
59.7%
P2
43.4%
66.7%
P3
48.4%
58.4%
OT
75.0%
80.0%
Final 5 min
45.1%
58.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nazar
60.0%▲
51.0%
47.0%
Toews
62.0%▼
63.5%
61.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 17:28 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 17:25 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 19:39 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 15:35 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 15:03 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 06:15 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 03:46 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 03:37 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2 | 06:44 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2 | 03:24 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 1 | 13:13 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 1 | 08:57 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 1 | 02:52 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 1 | 02:02 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |