Jonathan Toews vs Michael McCarron
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +9.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Toews wins 71.3% vs right-shot opponents — McCarron shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 60.4% vs McCarron 52.1% (+9.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toews 97.0%
Defensive zone
McCarron 53.7%
Neutral zone
Toews 90.1%
Result
Jonathan Toews favored at 76.7%
76.7%
23.3%
Toews
McCarron
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Toews
McCarron
Last 5: Toews 4-1 McCarron
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
3
0
Toews
McCarron
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Toews
McCarron
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
McCarron
Edge
Even Strength
62.6% (728)
52.8% (697)
+9.8%
Power Play
59.4% (143)
18.2% (11)
+41.2%
Penalty Kill
46.9% (32)
52.6% (211)
-5.7%
On power play, Toews has a +41.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McCarron shoots right. Toews is 71.3% vs right-shot opponents (303).
Toews shoots left. McCarron is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (645).
Home / Away
Toews
McCarron
Home
61.1% (455)
52.8% (477)
Away
62.1% (448)
51.8% (442)
By Period
Toews
McCarron
P1
59.7%
56.2%
P2
66.7%
52.4%
P3
58.4%
48.7%
OT
80.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
58.7%
50.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
62.0%▼
63.5%
61.6%
McCarron
38.0%▼
49.0%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 18:16 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 10:09 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 10:02 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 09:40 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 07:43 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |