Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Toews wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 60.4% vs Frost 56.3% (+4.6%)
H2H factor
Toews leads 11-3 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Toews 62.3%
Defensive zone
Toews 86.6%
Neutral zone
Toews 83.4%
Result
Jonathan Toews favored at 74.0%
74.0%
26.0%
Toews
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
3
(14 meetings)
11
3
Toews
Frost
Last 10: Toews 8-2 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
4
3
Toews
Frost
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toews
5
0
Toews
Frost
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toews
2
0
Toews
Frost
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
62.6% (728)
55.8% (745)
+6.8%
Power Play
59.4% (143)
60.5% (172)
-1.1%
Penalty Kill
46.9% (32)
88.9% (9)
-42.0%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +42.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Toews is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (599).
Toews shoots left. Frost is 58.0% vs left-shot opponents (636).
Home / Away
Toews
Frost
Home
61.1% (455)
57.3% (497)
Away
62.1% (448)
56.6% (429)
By Period
Toews
Frost
P1
59.7%
60.1%
P2
66.7%
56.0%
P3
58.4%
54.7%
OT
80.0%
63.6%
Final 5 min
58.7%
52.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
62.0%▼
63.5%
61.6%
Frost
68.0%▲
62.0%
57.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 15, 2025 | OT | 00:55 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 06:03 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 07:47 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 05:04 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 1 | 11:35 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 1 | 09:50 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 3 | 05:29 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 2 | 03:27 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 3 | 10:34 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 3 | 07:20 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 2 | 13:22 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 2 | 02:05 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 1 | 17:38 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 1 | 12:17 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |