Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +12.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Toews wins 71.3% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 60.4% vs Dowd 48.8% (+12.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toews 97.7%
Defensive zone
Toews 60.3%
Neutral zone
Toews 93.4%
Result
Jonathan Toews favored at 90.0%
90.0%
10.0%
Toews
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Toews
Dowd
Last 6: Toews 5-1 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
2
1
Toews
Dowd
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toews
1
0
Toews
Dowd
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toews
2
0
Toews
Dowd
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
62.6% (728)
51.2% (666)
+11.4%
Power Play
59.4% (143)
0.0% (2)
+59.4%
Penalty Kill
46.9% (32)
41.5% (224)
+5.4%
On power play, Toews has a +59.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Toews is 71.3% vs right-shot opponents (303).
Toews shoots left. Dowd is 47.3% vs left-shot opponents (566).
Home / Away
Toews
Dowd
Home
61.1% (455)
48.5% (466)
Away
62.1% (448)
48.8% (426)
By Period
Toews
Dowd
P1
59.7%
48.4%
P2
66.7%
46.8%
P3
58.4%
51.3%
OT
80.0%
30.0%
Final 5 min
58.7%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
62.0%▼
63.5%
61.6%
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
48.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2026 | 3 | 18:42 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 3 | 09:41 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 3 | 03:17 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 17:25 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 12:20 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 09:34 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |