Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +7.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on offensive-zone draws (91% H2H, 22 meetings). Toews wins 60.0% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 57.9% vs Dowd 50.7% (+7.2%)
H2H factor
Toews leads 32-10 in 42 meetings
Offensive zone
Toews 99.2%
Defensive zone
Toews 91.2%
Neutral zone
Toews 93.0%
Result
Jonathan Toews favored at 95.9%
95.9%
4.1%
Toews
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
32
-
10
(42 meetings)
32
10
Toews
Dowd
Last 10: Toews 9-1 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
20
2
Toews
Dowd
22 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
2
6
Toews
Dowd
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toews
10
2
Toews
Dowd
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
57.2% (13,079)
52.3% (6,036)
+4.9%
Power Play
63.3% (3,254)
56.1% (164)
+7.2%
Penalty Kill
53.6% (1,810)
44.1% (1,638)
+9.5%
On penalty kill, Toews has a +9.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Toews is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (6,498).
Toews shoots left. Dowd is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (5,158).
Home / Away
Toews
Dowd
Home
59.7% (9,212)
51.9% (3,917)
Away
56.1% (8,962)
49.5% (3,922)
By Period
Toews
Dowd
P1
58.6%
51.5%
P2
57.9%
50.4%
P3
57.3%
50.3%
OT
58.9%
45.9%
Final 5 min
58.2%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
62.0%▼
63.5%
57.9%
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2026 | 3 | 18:42 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 3 | 09:41 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 3 | 03:17 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 17:25 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 12:20 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 09:34 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 3 | 13:59 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 3 | 13:49 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 2 | 11:01 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 2 | 10:37 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 2 | 00:58 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 15, 2021 | 3 | 19:57 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 15, 2021 | 3 | 04:59 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 15, 2021 | 2 | 09:53 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 15, 2021 | 1 | 12:51 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 15, 2021 | 1 | 04:06 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 3 | 16:17 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 3 | 10:31 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 3 | 01:50 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 2 | 19:37 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |