Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +11.7% FO% edge overall. Toews wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Foligno shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 60.4% vs Foligno 49.9% (+11.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toews 70.1%
Defensive zone
Foligno 71.9%
Neutral zone
Foligno 51.3%
Result
Nick Foligno favored at 56.3%
43.7%
56.3%
Toews
Foligno
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Toews
Foligno
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
1
0
Toews
Foligno
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Foligno
0
2
Toews
Foligno
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toews
1
0
Toews
Foligno
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Foligno
Edge
Even Strength
62.6% (728)
49.5% (291)
+13.1%
Power Play
59.4% (143)
55.8% (43)
+3.6%
Penalty Kill
46.9% (32)
47.2% (53)
-0.3%
On even strength, Toews has a +13.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Foligno shoots left. Toews is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (599).
Toews shoots left. Foligno is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (208).
Home / Away
Toews
Foligno
Home
61.1% (455)
48.9% (178)
Away
62.1% (448)
50.7% (209)
By Period
Toews
Foligno
P1
59.7%
43.0%
P2
66.7%
55.9%
P3
58.4%
50.0%
OT
80.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
58.7%
51.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
62.0%▼
63.5%
61.6%
Foligno
54.0%▲
50.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 12:12 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 14:49 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 03:11 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 1 | 18:31 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |