Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +7.3% FO% edge overall. Toews wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 60.4% vs Paul 53.6% (+7.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 50.1%
Defensive zone
Paul 63.9%
Neutral zone
Paul 51.9%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 57.0%
43.0%
57.0%
Toews
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Toews
Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
1
Toews
Paul
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toews
1
0
Toews
Paul
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
62.6% (728)
53.7% (354)
+8.9%
Power Play
59.4% (143)
59.0% (61)
+0.4%
Penalty Kill
46.9% (32)
52.9% (34)
-6.0%
On even strength, Toews has a +8.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Toews is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (599).
Toews shoots left. Paul is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (321).
Home / Away
Toews
Paul
Home
61.1% (455)
55.1% (216)
Away
62.1% (448)
53.6% (233)
By Period
Toews
Paul
P1
59.7%
54.9%
P2
66.7%
54.5%
P3
58.4%
54.3%
OT
80.0%
44.4%
Final 5 min
58.7%
57.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
62.0%▼
63.5%
61.6%
Paul
54.0%▼
56.5%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 14:03 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 11:08 | Offensive | Nick Paul |