Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +7.5% FO% edge overall. Toews wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 59.8% vs Paul 52.9% (+7.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toews 50.7%
Defensive zone
Paul 57.5%
Neutral zone
Paul 50.4%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 53.4%
46.6%
53.4%
Toews
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Toews
Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
1
Toews
Paul
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toews
1
0
Toews
Paul
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
63.4% (555)
53.1% (277)
+10.3%
Power Play
54.1% (109)
58.7% (46)
-4.6%
Penalty Kill
46.7% (30)
51.7% (29)
-5.0%
On even strength, Toews has a +10.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Toews is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (456).
Toews shoots left. Paul is 53.4% vs left-shot opponents (249).
Home / Away
Toews
Paul
Home
59.6% (329)
52.9% (155)
Away
62.7% (365)
54.3% (197)
By Period
Toews
Paul
P1
62.2%
55.6%
P2
64.7%
56.7%
P3
56.8%
50.8%
OT
75.0%
20.0%
Final 5 min
54.5%
59.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
52.0%▼
58.0%
61.2%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.5%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 14:03 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 11:08 | Offensive | Nick Paul |