Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +7.7% FO% edge overall. Toews wins 70.2% vs right-shot opponents — Roy shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 59.8% vs Roy 53.0% (+7.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toews 89.1%
Defensive zone
Roy 61.4%
Neutral zone
Toews 78.7%
Result
Jonathan Toews favored at 58.6%
58.6%
41.4%
Toews
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Toews
Roy
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Toews
Roy
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toews
2
0
Toews
Roy
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
63.4% (555)
53.9% (449)
+9.5%
Power Play
54.1% (109)
53.3% (30)
+0.8%
Penalty Kill
46.7% (30)
51.3% (78)
-4.6%
On even strength, Toews has a +9.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Toews is 70.2% vs right-shot opponents (238).
Toews shoots left. Roy is 49.7% vs left-shot opponents (384).
Home / Away
Toews
Roy
Home
59.6% (329)
54.9% (293)
Away
62.7% (365)
51.9% (264)
By Period
Toews
Roy
P1
62.2%
55.0%
P2
64.7%
51.7%
P3
56.8%
53.7%
Final 5 min
54.5%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
52.0%▼
58.0%
61.2%
Roy
54.0%▲
52.0%
53.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 11:59 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 3 | 19:34 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 2 | 11:04 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 1 | 17:38 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |