Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +9.6% FO% edge overall. Toews wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Zacha shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 60.4% vs Zacha 51.8% (+9.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zacha 65.1%
Defensive zone
Zacha 81.5%
Neutral zone
Zacha 78.0%
Result
Pavel Zacha favored at 79.8%
20.2%
79.8%
Toews
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Toews
Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
0
1
Toews
Zacha
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zacha
0
1
Toews
Zacha
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
62.6% (728)
53.0% (700)
+9.6%
Power Play
59.4% (143)
54.1% (109)
+5.3%
Penalty Kill
46.9% (32)
39.2% (74)
+7.7%
On even strength, Toews has a +9.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Toews is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (599).
Toews shoots left. Zacha is 51.5% vs left-shot opponents (520).
Home / Away
Toews
Zacha
Home
61.1% (455)
51.6% (438)
Away
62.1% (448)
52.4% (445)
By Period
Toews
Zacha
P1
59.7%
57.0%
P2
66.7%
48.9%
P3
58.4%
50.5%
OT
80.0%
42.1%
Final 5 min
58.7%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
62.0%▼
63.5%
61.6%
Zacha
56.0%▲
50.0%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 18:04 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 12:33 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |