Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +13.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Toews wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Poehling shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 60.4% vs Poehling 48.0% (+13.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toews 93.4%
Defensive zone
Poehling 58.4%
Neutral zone
Toews 78.5%
Result
Jonathan Toews favored at 75.8%
75.8%
24.2%
Toews
Poehling
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Toews
Poehling
Last 8: Toews 5-3 Poehling
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
1
0
Toews
Poehling
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Poehling
0
1
Toews
Poehling
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toews
4
2
Toews
Poehling
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Poehling
Edge
Even Strength
62.6% (728)
50.4% (680)
+12.2%
Power Play
59.4% (143)
58.3% (12)
+1.1%
Penalty Kill
46.9% (32)
38.8% (219)
+8.1%
On even strength, Toews has a +12.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Poehling shoots left. Toews is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (599).
Toews shoots left. Poehling is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (615).
Home / Away
Toews
Poehling
Home
61.1% (455)
47.4% (422)
Away
62.1% (448)
48.1% (489)
By Period
Toews
Poehling
P1
59.7%
53.3%
P2
66.7%
40.3%
P3
58.4%
50.0%
OT
80.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
58.7%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
62.0%▼
63.5%
61.6%
Poehling
60.0%▲
53.5%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 11:00 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 1 | 10:48 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 3 | 01:27 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 3 | 07:13 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 2 | 11:48 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 1 | 07:18 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 1 | 04:26 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |