Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Toews wins 71.3% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 60.4% vs Stamkos 55.4% (+5.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toews 68.5%
Defensive zone
Toews 82.1%
Neutral zone
Toews 79.9%
Result
Jonathan Toews favored at 74.9%
74.9%
25.1%
Toews
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Toews
Stamkos
Last 6: Toews 4-2 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
2
1
Toews
Stamkos
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Toews
Stamkos
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toews
1
0
Toews
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
62.6% (728)
57.1% (368)
+5.5%
Power Play
59.4% (143)
55.2% (96)
+4.2%
Penalty Kill
46.9% (32)
50.0% (10)
-3.1%
On even strength, Toews has a +5.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Toews is 71.3% vs right-shot opponents (303).
Toews shoots left. Stamkos is 58.6% vs left-shot opponents (353).
Home / Away
Toews
Stamkos
Home
61.1% (455)
53.9% (230)
Away
62.1% (448)
59.0% (244)
By Period
Toews
Stamkos
P1
59.7%
56.7%
P2
66.7%
54.1%
P3
58.4%
59.2%
OT
80.0%
62.5%
Final 5 min
58.7%
59.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
62.0%▼
63.5%
61.6%
Stamkos
66.0%▲
56.5%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 08:19 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 3 | 15:01 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 00:47 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 07:20 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 07:11 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 08:28 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |