Frederick Gaudreau vs Jordan Staal
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +12.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Gaudreau on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Gaudreau wins 42.8% vs left-shot opponents — Staal shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gaudreau 43.9% vs Staal 54.6% (-12.1%)
H2H factor
Gaudreau leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Staal 93.3%
Defensive zone
Staal 57.3%
Neutral zone
Staal 81.5%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 85.0%
15.0%
85.0%
Gaudreau
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
4
(10 meetings)
6
4
Gaudreau
Staal
Last 10: Gaudreau 6-4 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
2
3
Gaudreau
Staal
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaudreau
1
0
Gaudreau
Staal
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gaudreau
3
1
Gaudreau
Staal
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gaudreau
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
44.9% (414)
56.2% (989)
-11.3%
Power Play
31.8% (22)
66.0% (159)
-34.2%
Penalty Kill
38.0% (129)
42.7% (253)
-4.7%
On power play, Staal has a +34.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Gaudreau is 42.8% vs left-shot opponents (453).
Gaudreau shoots right. Staal is 65.0% vs right-shot opponents (431).
Home / Away
Gaudreau
Staal
Home
42.6% (277)
55.4% (699)
Away
43.1% (288)
54.4% (702)
By Period
Gaudreau
Staal
P1
44.1%
55.7%
P2
44.7%
54.7%
P3
39.5%
53.4%
OT
0.0%
70.0%
Final 5 min
47.2%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gaudreau
40.0%▼
42.5%
42.8%
Staal
52.0%▬
52.5%
54.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2026 | 3 | 18:31 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 3 | 16:48 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 3 | 16:35 | Defensive | Frederick Gaudreau |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Frederick Gaudreau |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 2 | 03:22 | Neutral | Frederick Gaudreau |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 1 | 13:24 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Frederick Gaudreau |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 18:24 | Offensive | Frederick Gaudreau |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 15:25 | Offensive | Frederick Gaudreau |