Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +4.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Finley 50.7% vs Staal 54.6% (-4.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Staal 61.5%
Defensive zone
Finley 52.7%
Neutral zone
Staal 55.6%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 55.7%
44.3%
55.7%
Finley
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Finley
Staal
Last 8: Finley 4-4 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
1
2
Finley
Staal
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Finley
2
0
Finley
Staal
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
1
2
Finley
Staal
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Finley
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (270)
56.2% (989)
-5.5%
Power Play
50.0% (14)
66.0% (159)
-16.0%
Penalty Kill
53.1% (32)
42.7% (253)
+10.4%
On power play, Staal has a +16.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Finley is 50.2% vs left-shot opponents (233).
Finley shoots right. Staal is 65.0% vs right-shot opponents (431).
Home / Away
Finley
Staal
Home
53.8% (199)
55.4% (699)
Away
46.2% (117)
54.4% (702)
By Period
Finley
Staal
P1
54.7%
55.7%
P2
47.4%
54.7%
P3
51.8%
53.4%
OT
50.0%
70.0%
Final 5 min
49.4%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Finley
64.0%▲
53.5%
50.9%
Staal
52.0%▬
52.5%
54.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 19:01 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 18:54 | Defensive | Jack Finley |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 17:21 | Defensive | Jack Finley |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 17:15 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 06:56 | Offensive | Jack Finley |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 16:42 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jack Finley |