Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +10.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on neutral-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 54.6% vs Carlsson 44.6% (+10.9%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 8-2 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Staal 85.8%
Defensive zone
Staal 95.2%
Neutral zone
Staal 88.4%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 89.2%
89.2%
10.8%
Staal
Carlsson
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
2
(10 meetings)
8
2
Staal
Carlsson
Last 10: Staal 8-2 Carlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Staal
Carlsson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
2
0
Staal
Carlsson
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
5
1
Staal
Carlsson
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Carlsson
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (989)
45.0% (695)
+11.2%
Power Play
66.0% (159)
46.4% (84)
+19.6%
Penalty Kill
42.7% (253)
32.9% (85)
+9.8%
On power play, Staal has a +19.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carlsson shoots left. Staal is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (970).
Staal shoots left. Carlsson is 42.8% vs left-shot opponents (573).
Home / Away
Staal
Carlsson
Home
55.4% (699)
42.5% (435)
Away
54.4% (702)
45.5% (429)
By Period
Staal
Carlsson
P1
55.7%
45.3%
P2
54.7%
38.7%
P3
53.4%
48.5%
OT
70.0%
41.7%
Final 5 min
56.7%
38.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
52.0%▬
52.5%
54.9%
Carlsson
32.0%▼
39.0%
44.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 11:07 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 13:18 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 07:24 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 03:13 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 02:58 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 00:57 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 00:10 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 07:06 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 07:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |