Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +14.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on neutral-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Staal wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Carlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 55.3% vs Carlsson 41.1% (+14.6%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 8-2 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Staal 91.1%
Defensive zone
Staal 97.2%
Neutral zone
Staal 95.0%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 94.7%
94.7%
5.3%
Staal
Carlsson
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
2
(10 meetings)
8
2
Staal
Carlsson
Last 10: Staal 8-2 Carlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Staal
Carlsson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
2
0
Staal
Carlsson
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
5
1
Staal
Carlsson
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Carlsson
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (14,654)
40.9% (1,878)
+15.0%
Power Play
62.7% (1,762)
42.9% (156)
+19.8%
Penalty Kill
47.9% (2,907)
34.7% (121)
+13.2%
On power play, Staal has a +19.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carlsson shoots left. Staal is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (12,805).
Staal shoots left. Carlsson is 40.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,512).
Home / Away
Staal
Carlsson
Home
56.4% (9,699)
42.2% (1,051)
Away
54.3% (9,689)
39.2% (1,104)
By Period
Staal
Carlsson
P1
55.2%
43.3%
P2
55.9%
36.2%
P3
54.8%
43.3%
OT
56.2%
40.7%
Final 5 min
56.1%
39.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
52.0%▬
52.5%
55.3%
Carlsson
32.0%▼
39.0%
40.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 11:07 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 13:18 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 07:24 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 03:13 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 02:58 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 00:57 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 00:10 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 07:06 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 07:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |