Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 54.6% vs Duchene 51.8% (+2.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 68.3%
Defensive zone
Staal 66.8%
Neutral zone
Staal 50.5%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 58.7%
58.7%
41.3%
Staal
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Staal
Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
1
0
Staal
Duchene
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
1
Staal
Duchene
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (989)
51.1% (366)
+5.1%
Power Play
66.0% (159)
61.5% (65)
+4.5%
Penalty Kill
42.7% (253)
16.7% (6)
+26.0%
On penalty kill, Staal has a +26.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Staal is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (970).
Staal shoots left. Duchene is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (272).
Home / Away
Staal
Duchene
Home
55.4% (699)
51.7% (201)
Away
54.4% (702)
52.5% (236)
By Period
Staal
Duchene
P1
55.7%
49.0%
P2
54.7%
57.1%
P3
53.4%
49.2%
OT
70.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
56.7%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
52.0%▬
52.5%
54.9%
Duchene
56.0%▲
51.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 19:22 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 18:56 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |