Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on offensive-zone draws (72% H2H, 25 meetings). Staal wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 55.3% vs Frost 50.6% (+4.7%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 35-32 in 67 meetings
Offensive zone
Frost 61.7%
Defensive zone
Staal 84.1%
Neutral zone
Staal 65.8%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 60.4%
60.4%
39.6%
Staal
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
35
-
32
(67 meetings)
35
32
Staal
Frost
Last 10: Staal 3-7 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
7
18
Staal
Frost
25 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
11
7
Staal
Frost
18 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
17
7
Staal
Frost
24 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (14,654)
49.7% (3,652)
+6.2%
Power Play
62.7% (1,762)
55.4% (632)
+7.3%
Penalty Kill
47.9% (2,907)
55.0% (40)
-7.1%
On power play, Staal has a +7.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Staal is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (12,805).
Staal shoots left. Frost is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,843).
Home / Away
Staal
Frost
Home
56.4% (9,699)
51.4% (2,101)
Away
54.3% (9,689)
49.8% (2,223)
By Period
Staal
Frost
P1
55.2%
51.2%
P2
55.9%
51.3%
P3
54.8%
48.8%
OT
56.2%
64.9%
Final 5 min
56.1%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
52.0%▬
52.5%
55.3%
Frost
68.0%▲
63.0%
50.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 16:16 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 14:35 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 08:08 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 09:34 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 09:25 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 07:00 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 04:30 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 03:32 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 1 | 04:57 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 1 | 04:44 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 2 | 16:52 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 2, 2025 | OT | 01:08 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 2, 2025 | 3 | 06:25 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 2, 2025 | 3 | 06:20 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 2, 2025 | 3 | 05:02 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 2, 2025 | 2 | 09:02 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 2, 2025 | 1 | 13:48 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 3 | 13:41 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 2 | 06:30 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 1 | 06:15 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |