Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +8.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Staal wins 65.0% vs right-shot opponents — Geekie shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 54.6% vs Geekie 47.7% (+8.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Geekie 56.3%
Defensive zone
Staal 86.0%
Neutral zone
Staal 62.8%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 77.6%
77.6%
22.4%
Staal
Geekie
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Staal
Geekie
Last 5: Staal 3-2 Geekie
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Geekie
0
1
Staal
Geekie
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
3
1
Staal
Geekie
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Geekie
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (989)
46.7% (120)
+9.5%
Power Play
66.0% (159)
48.6% (35)
+17.4%
Penalty Kill
42.7% (253)
0.0% (3)
+42.7%
On penalty kill, Staal has a +42.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Geekie shoots right. Staal is 65.0% vs right-shot opponents (431).
Staal shoots left. Geekie is 42.4% vs left-shot opponents (99).
Home / Away
Staal
Geekie
Home
55.4% (699)
46.8% (77)
Away
54.4% (702)
45.7% (81)
By Period
Staal
Geekie
P1
55.7%
42.4%
P2
54.7%
49.1%
P3
53.4%
47.6%
OT
70.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
56.7%
35.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
52.0%▬
52.5%
54.9%
Geekie
46.0%▬
47.0%
46.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 17, 2025 | 3 | 09:00 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 1 | 06:47 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 3 | 10:28 | Defensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 02:11 | Offensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 19:10 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |