Jordan Staal vs Nathan MacKinnon
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +8.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on defensive-zone draws (78% H2H, 41 meetings). Staal wins 58.8% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 55.3% vs MacKinnon 46.8% (+8.5%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 103-41 in 144 meetings
Offensive zone
Staal 83.3%
Defensive zone
Staal 97.8%
Neutral zone
Staal 96.5%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 92.4%
92.4%
7.6%
Staal
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
103
-
41
(144 meetings)
103
41
Staal
MacKinnon
Last 10: Staal 5-5 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
34
15
Staal
MacKinnon
49 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
32
9
Staal
MacKinnon
41 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
37
17
Staal
MacKinnon
54 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (14,654)
46.1% (11,264)
+9.8%
Power Play
62.7% (1,762)
53.2% (1,421)
+9.5%
Penalty Kill
47.9% (2,907)
42.8% (502)
+5.1%
On even strength, Staal has a +9.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Staal is 58.8% vs right-shot opponents (6,583).
Staal shoots left. MacKinnon is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (9,537).
Home / Away
Staal
MacKinnon
Home
56.4% (9,699)
49.7% (6,471)
Away
54.3% (9,689)
43.9% (6,717)
By Period
Staal
MacKinnon
P1
55.2%
47.4%
P2
55.9%
46.6%
P3
54.8%
46.1%
OT
56.2%
48.4%
Final 5 min
56.1%
49.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
52.0%▬
52.5%
55.3%
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 05:44 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 23, 2025 | OT | 04:54 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 23, 2025 | OT | 03:44 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 14:48 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 14:30 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 13:18 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 06:59 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 04:31 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 04:24 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 07:49 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 07:40 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 1 | 10:06 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 3 | 18:13 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 3 | 17:49 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 3 | 13:56 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 3 | 13:41 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 3 | 11:03 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 3 | 10:41 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 3 | 08:37 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |