Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +6.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Staal wins 65.0% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 54.6% vs Dowd 48.6% (+6.4%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Staal 84.8%
Defensive zone
Dowd 68.6%
Neutral zone
Staal 58.5%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 65.7%
65.7%
34.3%
Staal
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
5
(11 meetings)
6
5
Staal
Dowd
Last 10: Staal 6-4 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
2
1
Staal
Dowd
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
4
4
Staal
Dowd
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (989)
51.0% (671)
+5.2%
Power Play
66.0% (159)
0.0% (2)
+66.0%
Penalty Kill
42.7% (253)
41.5% (224)
+1.2%
On power play, Staal has a +66.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Staal is 65.0% vs right-shot opponents (431).
Staal shoots left. Dowd is 47.1% vs left-shot opponents (571).
Home / Away
Staal
Dowd
Home
55.4% (699)
48.2% (471)
Away
54.4% (702)
48.8% (426)
By Period
Staal
Dowd
P1
55.7%
48.3%
P2
54.7%
46.8%
P3
53.4%
51.0%
OT
70.0%
30.0%
Final 5 min
56.7%
51.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
52.0%▬
52.5%
54.9%
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 19:17 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 13:18 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 07:52 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 15:38 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 11:16 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 05:43 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 17:45 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 08:06 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 13:43 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |