Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.9% vs 54.3%).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 54.6% vs Paul 53.6% (+0.6%)
H2H factor
Paul leads 7-7 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Paul 55.4%
Defensive zone
Staal 52.7%
Neutral zone
Paul 51.1%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 50.1%
49.9%
50.1%
Staal
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
7
(14 meetings)
7
7
Staal
Paul
Last 10: Staal 5-5 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Staal
Paul
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
Staal
Paul
6 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Staal
Paul
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (989)
53.7% (354)
+2.5%
Power Play
66.0% (159)
59.0% (61)
+7.0%
Penalty Kill
42.7% (253)
52.9% (34)
-10.2%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +10.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Staal is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (970).
Staal shoots left. Paul is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (321).
Home / Away
Staal
Paul
Home
55.4% (699)
55.1% (216)
Away
54.4% (702)
53.6% (233)
By Period
Staal
Paul
P1
55.7%
54.9%
P2
54.7%
54.5%
P3
53.4%
54.3%
OT
70.0%
44.4%
Final 5 min
56.7%
57.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
52.0%▬
52.5%
54.9%
Paul
54.0%▼
56.5%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 11:38 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 08:48 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 08:43 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 16:49 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 12:56 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 01:51 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 17:28 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 00:36 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 12:18 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 12:06 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 03:13 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 18:07 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 14:36 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 02:42 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |