Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on neutral-zone draws (57% H2H, 7 meetings). Staal wins 65.0% vs right-shot opponents — Roy shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 54.6% vs Roy 51.9% (+2.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Staal 78.4%
Defensive zone
Roy 51.8%
Neutral zone
Staal 63.8%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 63.7%
63.7%
36.3%
Staal
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Staal
Roy
Last 9: Staal 6-3 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
1
0
Staal
Roy
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
1
0
Staal
Roy
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
4
3
Staal
Roy
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (989)
51.9% (547)
+4.3%
Power Play
66.0% (159)
54.1% (37)
+11.9%
Penalty Kill
42.7% (253)
53.3% (92)
-10.6%
On power play, Staal has a +11.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Staal is 65.0% vs right-shot opponents (431).
Staal shoots left. Roy is 48.5% vs left-shot opponents (464).
Home / Away
Staal
Roy
Home
55.4% (699)
54.0% (328)
Away
54.4% (702)
50.6% (348)
By Period
Staal
Roy
P1
55.7%
53.5%
P2
54.7%
51.6%
P3
53.4%
51.6%
Final 5 min
56.7%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
52.0%▬
52.5%
54.9%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 19:07 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 1 | 06:28 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 3 | 17:21 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 3 | 15:45 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 1 | 15:31 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 1 | 13:16 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 1 | 13:04 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |