Scouting Report
Ryan Johnson holds a +7.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Johnson on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Staal wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Johnson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 55.3% vs Johnson 60.0% (-7.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Staal 71.2%
Defensive zone
Staal 60.5%
Neutral zone
Staal 59.7%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 62.5%
62.5%
37.5%
Staal
Johnson
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Staal
Johnson
Last 5: Staal 1-4 Johnson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
1
0
Staal
Johnson
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johnson
0
3
Staal
Johnson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johnson
0
1
Staal
Johnson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (14,654)
63.8% (260)
-7.9%
Power Play
62.7% (1,762)
50.0% (4)
+12.7%
Penalty Kill
47.9% (2,907)
63.0% (46)
-15.1%
On penalty kill, Johnson has a +15.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots left. Staal is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (12,805).
Staal shoots left. Johnson is 62.7% vs left-shot opponents (225).
Home / Away
Staal
Johnson
Home
56.4% (9,699)
69.8% (126)
Away
54.3% (9,689)
58.6% (186)
By Period
Staal
Johnson
P1
55.2%
63.0%
P2
55.9%
61.8%
P3
54.8%
66.0%
OT
56.2%
0.0%
Final 5 min
56.1%
65.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
52.0%▬
52.5%
55.3%
Johnson
66.0%▬
65.5%
63.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 20, 2011 | 3 | 18:48 | Defensive | Ryan Johnson |
| Feb 20, 2011 | 3 | 11:10 | Defensive | Ryan Johnson |
| Feb 20, 2011 | 2 | 07:42 | Defensive | Ryan Johnson |
| Feb 20, 2011 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Johnson |
| Feb 20, 2011 | 1 | 17:09 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |