Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.3% vs 56.0%). Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 66 meetings). Staal wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 55.3% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-0.7%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 92-77 in 169 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 56.8%
Defensive zone
Staal 56.9%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 50.8%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 50.9%
49.1%
50.9%
Staal
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
77
-
92
(169 meetings)
77
92
Staal
O'Reilly
Last 10: Staal 6-4 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
19
47
Staal
O'Reilly
66 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
27
22
Staal
O'Reilly
49 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
31
23
Staal
O'Reilly
54 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (14,654)
56.2% (15,290)
-0.3%
Power Play
62.7% (1,762)
58.7% (3,457)
+4.0%
Penalty Kill
47.9% (2,907)
51.4% (2,826)
-3.5%
On power play, Staal has a +4.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Staal is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (12,805).
Staal shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,901).
Home / Away
Staal
O'Reilly
Home
56.4% (9,699)
57.6% (10,799)
Away
54.3% (9,689)
54.4% (10,807)
By Period
Staal
O'Reilly
P1
55.2%
55.6%
P2
55.9%
57.0%
P3
54.8%
55.0%
OT
56.2%
62.2%
Final 5 min
56.1%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
52.0%▬
52.5%
55.3%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 17, 2025 | 3 | 15:56 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 3 | 13:05 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 3 | 12:41 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 2 | 10:25 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 2 | 07:01 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 1 | 14:09 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 3 | 10:06 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 12:02 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 11:56 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 06:10 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 03:23 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 14:38 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 12:00 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 06:34 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 04:40 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 3 | 12:48 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 3 | 03:55 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 2 | 10:19 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 2 | 10:10 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 1 | 10:59 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |