Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on defensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 34 meetings). Staal wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 55.3% vs Monahan 51.2% (+4.1%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 55-45 in 100 meetings
Offensive zone
Monahan 52.7%
Defensive zone
Staal 81.0%
Neutral zone
Staal 61.9%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 63.7%
63.7%
36.3%
Staal
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
55
-
45
(100 meetings)
55
45
Staal
Monahan
Last 10: Staal 7-3 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
10
22
Staal
Monahan
32 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
30
4
Staal
Monahan
34 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
15
19
Staal
Monahan
34 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (14,654)
51.1% (11,407)
+4.8%
Power Play
62.7% (1,762)
53.6% (2,582)
+9.1%
Penalty Kill
47.9% (2,907)
45.9% (772)
+2.0%
On power play, Staal has a +9.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Staal is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (12,805).
Staal shoots left. Monahan is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (9,335).
Home / Away
Staal
Monahan
Home
56.4% (9,699)
52.3% (7,387)
Away
54.3% (9,689)
50.2% (7,374)
By Period
Staal
Monahan
P1
55.2%
51.0%
P2
55.9%
51.7%
P3
54.8%
51.0%
OT
56.2%
53.5%
Final 5 min
56.1%
50.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
52.0%▬
52.5%
55.3%
Monahan
40.0%▼
51.0%
51.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 18:03 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 18:00 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 04:22 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 05:25 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 18:38 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 05:11 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 12:06 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 31, 2024 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 3 | 03:56 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 2 | 15:27 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 2 | 06:48 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 1 | 19:16 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 1 | 07:12 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 1 | 01:03 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 3 | 13:38 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 3 | 11:41 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 3 | 00:26 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 2 | 19:01 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |