Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Lorentz on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 54.6% vs Lorentz 49.5% (+5.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Staal 73.2%
Defensive zone
Staal 64.8%
Neutral zone
Staal 58.2%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 68.2%
68.2%
31.8%
Staal
Lorentz
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Staal
Lorentz
Last 5: Staal 3-2 Lorentz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
2
0
Staal
Lorentz
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lorentz
1
2
Staal
Lorentz
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Lorentz
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (989)
51.4% (74)
+4.8%
Power Play
66.0% (159)
50.0% (2)
+16.0%
Penalty Kill
42.7% (253)
42.3% (26)
+0.4%
On power play, Staal has a +16.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lorentz shoots left. Staal is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (970).
Staal shoots left. Lorentz is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (59).
Home / Away
Staal
Lorentz
Home
55.4% (699)
52.9% (68)
Away
54.4% (702)
41.2% (34)
By Period
Staal
Lorentz
P1
55.7%
58.6%
P2
54.7%
45.0%
P3
53.4%
45.5%
Final 5 min
56.7%
52.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
52.0%▬
52.5%
54.9%
Lorentz
48.0%▬
48.0%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2026 | 3 | 10:15 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 3 | 10:10 | Defensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 2 | 01:57 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 1 | 14:16 | Defensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 1 | 16:44 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |