Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +6.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Staal wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Lorentz shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 55.3% vs Lorentz 48.5% (+6.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Staal 73.4%
Defensive zone
Staal 83.6%
Neutral zone
Staal 80.8%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 78.5%
78.5%
21.5%
Staal
Lorentz
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Staal
Lorentz
Last 6: Staal 4-2 Lorentz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
3
0
Staal
Lorentz
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lorentz
1
2
Staal
Lorentz
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Lorentz
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (14,654)
48.9% (1,125)
+7.0%
Power Play
62.7% (1,762)
50.0% (26)
+12.7%
Penalty Kill
47.9% (2,907)
41.8% (91)
+6.1%
On power play, Staal has a +12.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lorentz shoots left. Staal is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (12,805).
Staal shoots left. Lorentz is 50.3% vs left-shot opponents (784).
Home / Away
Staal
Lorentz
Home
56.4% (9,699)
50.6% (609)
Away
54.3% (9,689)
46.3% (633)
By Period
Staal
Lorentz
P1
55.2%
53.0%
P2
55.9%
46.7%
P3
54.8%
46.2%
OT
56.2%
0.0%
Final 5 min
56.1%
48.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
52.0%▬
52.5%
55.3%
Lorentz
48.0%▬
48.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2026 | 3 | 10:15 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 3 | 10:10 | Defensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 2 | 01:57 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 1 | 14:16 | Defensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 1 | 16:44 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 27, 2023 | 2 | 10:33 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |