Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Staal wins 65.0% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 54.6% vs Stamkos 55.4% (-1.6%)
H2H factor
Stamkos leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Stamkos 56.4%
Defensive zone
Staal 78.7%
Neutral zone
Staal 55.6%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 58.5%
58.5%
41.5%
Staal
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
7
(11 meetings)
4
7
Staal
Stamkos
Last 10: Staal 4-6 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
1
4
Staal
Stamkos
5 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Staal
Stamkos
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Staal
Stamkos
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (989)
57.1% (368)
-0.9%
Power Play
66.0% (159)
55.2% (96)
+10.8%
Penalty Kill
42.7% (253)
50.0% (10)
-7.3%
On power play, Staal has a +10.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Staal is 65.0% vs right-shot opponents (431).
Staal shoots left. Stamkos is 58.6% vs left-shot opponents (353).
Home / Away
Staal
Stamkos
Home
55.4% (699)
53.9% (230)
Away
54.4% (702)
59.0% (244)
By Period
Staal
Stamkos
P1
55.7%
56.7%
P2
54.7%
54.1%
P3
53.4%
59.2%
OT
70.0%
62.5%
Final 5 min
56.7%
59.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
52.0%▬
52.5%
54.9%
Stamkos
66.0%▲
56.5%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 17, 2025 | 3 | 18:20 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 3 | 12:57 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 3 | 10:05 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 3 | 03:41 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 3 | 03:25 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 2 | 10:31 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 3 | 13:10 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 11:52 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 00:36 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 00:18 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 19:27 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |