Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +7.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Staal wins 65.0% vs right-shot opponents — Johnston shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 54.6% vs Johnston 48.0% (+7.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Staal 69.5%
Defensive zone
Staal 86.6%
Neutral zone
Staal 74.1%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 80.6%
80.6%
19.4%
Staal
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Staal
Johnston
Last 7: Staal 5-2 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
1
0
Staal
Johnston
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
3
1
Staal
Johnston
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Staal
Johnston
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (989)
47.3% (666)
+8.9%
Power Play
66.0% (159)
50.7% (69)
+15.3%
Penalty Kill
42.7% (253)
51.4% (35)
-8.7%
On power play, Staal has a +15.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Staal is 65.0% vs right-shot opponents (431).
Staal shoots left. Johnston is 46.4% vs left-shot opponents (567).
Home / Away
Staal
Johnston
Home
55.4% (699)
47.5% (364)
Away
54.4% (702)
48.0% (406)
By Period
Staal
Johnston
P1
55.7%
49.4%
P2
54.7%
46.9%
P3
53.4%
47.1%
OT
70.0%
47.1%
Final 5 min
56.7%
46.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
52.0%▬
52.5%
54.9%
Johnston
40.0%▼
49.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 08:18 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 11:18 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 11:01 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 07:06 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 09:48 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 18:56 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 15:46 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |