Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +6.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on defensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 8 meetings). Staal wins 58.8% vs right-shot opponents — Johnston shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 55.3% vs Johnston 49.0% (+6.4%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 16-7 in 23 meetings
Offensive zone
Staal 94.7%
Defensive zone
Staal 94.6%
Neutral zone
Staal 90.9%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 92.8%
92.8%
7.2%
Staal
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
16
-
7
(23 meetings)
16
7
Staal
Johnston
Last 10: Staal 8-2 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Staal
Johnston
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
7
1
Staal
Johnston
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
7
4
Staal
Johnston
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (14,654)
49.1% (2,232)
+6.8%
Power Play
62.7% (1,762)
52.5% (179)
+10.2%
Penalty Kill
47.9% (2,907)
44.7% (237)
+3.2%
On power play, Staal has a +10.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Staal is 58.8% vs right-shot opponents (6,583).
Staal shoots left. Johnston is 47.5% vs left-shot opponents (1,999).
Home / Away
Staal
Johnston
Home
56.4% (9,699)
49.2% (1,332)
Away
54.3% (9,689)
48.7% (1,316)
By Period
Staal
Johnston
P1
55.2%
50.0%
P2
55.9%
48.1%
P3
54.8%
48.6%
OT
56.2%
51.5%
Final 5 min
56.1%
48.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
52.0%▬
52.5%
55.3%
Johnston
40.0%▼
49.0%
48.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 08:18 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 11:18 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 11:01 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 07:06 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 09:48 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 18:56 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 15:46 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 3 | 17:44 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 2 | 11:36 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 1 | 18:59 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 3 | 14:39 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 3 | 08:37 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 2 | 10:51 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 2 | 07:13 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 1 | 19:49 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 1 | 05:42 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 3 | 16:12 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 3 | 03:24 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 1 | 15:09 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |