Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +17.7% FO% edge overall. Bailey wins 46.7% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bailey 44.3% vs O'Reilly 56.4% (-17.7%)
Offensive zone
Bailey 68.6%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 83.4%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 54.5%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 56.4%
43.6%
56.4%
Bailey
O'Reilly
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bailey
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
39.8% (83)
56.6% (1,064)
-16.8%
Power Play
27.3% (22)
60.4% (260)
-33.1%
Penalty Kill
80.0% (5)
54.0% (261)
+26.0%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +33.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Bailey is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (60).
Bailey shoots left. O'Reilly is 58.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,003).
Home / Away
Bailey
O'Reilly
Home
33.3% (48)
54.9% (801)
Away
43.5% (62)
58.7% (784)
By Period
Bailey
O'Reilly
P1
33.3%
58.0%
P2
47.2%
56.7%
P3
39.4%
55.4%
OT
0.0%
64.7%
Final 5 min
38.1%
56.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bailey
42.0%▬
41.0%
39.1%
O'Reilly
56.0%▲
54.5%
56.8%