Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Bailey on defensive-zone draws (62% H2H, 13 meetings). Bailey wins 42.7% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bailey 45.5% vs Stamkos 51.1% (-5.8%)
H2H factor
Bailey leads 19-13 in 32 meetings
Offensive zone
Stamkos 86.7%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 80.5%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 82.6%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 83.2%
16.8%
83.2%
Bailey
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
19
-
13
(32 meetings)
19
13
Bailey
Stamkos
Last 10: Bailey 6-4 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bailey
6
5
Bailey
Stamkos
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bailey
8
5
Bailey
Stamkos
13 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bailey
5
3
Bailey
Stamkos
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bailey
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
45.8% (1,991)
50.5% (9,825)
-4.7%
Power Play
48.1% (295)
55.2% (1,729)
-7.1%
Penalty Kill
39.9% (281)
49.6% (827)
-9.7%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +9.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Bailey is 42.7% vs right-shot opponents (995).
Bailey shoots left. Stamkos is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (8,806).
Home / Away
Bailey
Stamkos
Home
46.6% (1,353)
52.8% (6,270)
Away
44.0% (1,232)
49.3% (6,137)
By Period
Bailey
Stamkos
P1
46.5%
49.2%
P2
44.8%
52.7%
P3
44.4%
50.9%
OT
51.1%
54.3%
Final 5 min
43.6%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bailey
42.0%▬
41.0%
45.3%
Stamkos
66.0%▲
56.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2019 | 2 | 18:19 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Dec 9, 2019 | 2 | 02:35 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 1, 2019 | 2 | 15:33 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |
| Feb 1, 2019 | 3 | 17:49 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 1, 2019 | 3 | 15:01 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Feb 1, 2019 | 3 | 11:43 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |
| Feb 1, 2019 | 3 | 02:06 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Feb 1, 2019 | 2 | 08:38 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 1, 2019 | 1 | 04:17 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Jan 13, 2019 | 2 | 12:28 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 13, 2019 | 2 | 02:09 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 27, 2014 | OT | 03:13 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 6, 2013 | 2 | 16:50 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 6, 2013 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Josh Bailey |
| Apr 6, 2013 | 1 | 18:20 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Apr 6, 2013 | 1 | 08:56 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Mar 14, 2013 | 1 | 09:55 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 6, 2011 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Josh Bailey |
| Dec 6, 2011 | 2 | 18:22 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 6, 2011 | 1 | 01:12 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |