Scouting Report
Josh Bailey holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Bailey on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Bailey wins 44.5% vs left-shot opponents — Sestito shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bailey 44.6% vs Sestito 46.3% (+2.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Sestito 52.6%
Defensive zone
Bailey 64.3%
Neutral zone
Bailey 55.0%
Result
Josh Bailey favored at 55.8%
55.8%
44.2%
Bailey
Sestito
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Bailey
Sestito
Last 6: Bailey 3-3 Sestito
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bailey
2
1
Bailey
Sestito
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sestito
1
2
Bailey
Sestito
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bailey
Sestito
Edge
Even Strength
44.2% (579)
40.5% (74)
+3.7%
Penalty Kill
39.8% (108)
100.0% (1)
-60.2%
On penalty kill, Sestito has a +60.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sestito shoots left. Bailey is 44.5% vs left-shot opponents (506).
Bailey shoots left. Sestito is 38.3% vs left-shot opponents (60).
Home / Away
Bailey
Sestito
Home
45.9% (375)
32.3% (31)
Away
41.8% (361)
47.7% (44)
By Period
Bailey
Sestito
P1
47.3%
38.7%
P2
40.4%
14.3%
P3
43.3%
69.6%
Final 5 min
44.6%
43.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bailey
42.0%▬
41.0%
43.9%
Sestito
36.0%▼
44.0%
41.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26, 2011 | 2 | 18:05 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Nov 26, 2011 | 1 | 15:05 | Defensive | Tim Sestito |
| Nov 26, 2011 | 1 | 08:43 | Defensive | Tim Sestito |
| Nov 25, 2011 | 3 | 04:56 | Offensive | Tim Sestito |
| Nov 25, 2011 | 2 | 17:09 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |
| Nov 25, 2011 | 2 | 02:05 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |