Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (45.3% vs 45.2%). Look for Sestito on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Bailey wins 47.0% vs left-shot opponents — Sestito shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bailey 45.5% vs Sestito 46.0% (+0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bailey 62.3%
Defensive zone
Sestito 57.0%
Neutral zone
Sestito 52.6%
Result
Josh Bailey favored at 51.6%
51.6%
48.4%
Bailey
Sestito
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Bailey
Sestito
Last 9: Bailey 3-6 Sestito
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Bailey
Sestito
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sestito
1
4
Bailey
Sestito
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bailey
Sestito
Edge
Even Strength
45.8% (1,991)
45.7% (457)
+0.1%
Power Play
48.1% (295)
55.6% (9)
-7.5%
Penalty Kill
39.9% (281)
34.2% (38)
+5.7%
On power play, Sestito has a +7.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sestito shoots left. Bailey is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,590).
Bailey shoots left. Sestito is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (349).
Home / Away
Bailey
Sestito
Home
46.6% (1,353)
48.0% (273)
Away
44.0% (1,232)
41.9% (234)
By Period
Bailey
Sestito
P1
46.5%
42.5%
P2
44.8%
42.1%
P3
44.4%
52.0%
Final 5 min
43.6%
47.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bailey
42.0%▬
41.0%
45.3%
Sestito
36.0%▼
44.0%
45.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2014 | 2 | 06:45 | Offensive | Tim Sestito |
| Nov 26, 2011 | 2 | 18:05 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Nov 26, 2011 | 1 | 15:05 | Defensive | Tim Sestito |
| Nov 26, 2011 | 1 | 08:43 | Defensive | Tim Sestito |
| Nov 25, 2011 | 3 | 04:56 | Offensive | Tim Sestito |
| Nov 25, 2011 | 2 | 17:09 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |
| Nov 25, 2011 | 2 | 02:05 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |
| Jan 17, 2011 | 3 | 05:16 | Defensive | Tim Sestito |
| Jan 17, 2011 | 3 | 05:06 | Defensive | Tim Sestito |