Scouting Report
Josh Norris holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Carlsson on neutral-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Norris 49.9% vs Carlsson 44.6% (+5.9%)
H2H factor
Carlsson leads 8-5 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Carlsson 68.9%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 67.3%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 62.6%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 65.0%
35.0%
65.0%
Norris
Carlsson
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
8
(13 meetings)
5
8
Norris
Carlsson
Last 10: Norris 5-5 Carlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carlsson
0
2
Norris
Carlsson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Norris
3
1
Norris
Carlsson
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carlsson
2
5
Norris
Carlsson
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Norris
Carlsson
Edge
Even Strength
50.5% (388)
45.0% (695)
+5.5%
Power Play
47.6% (84)
46.4% (84)
+1.2%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (7)
32.9% (85)
+10.0%
On penalty kill, Norris has a +10.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carlsson shoots left. Norris is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (321).
Norris shoots left. Carlsson is 42.8% vs left-shot opponents (573).
Home / Away
Norris
Carlsson
Home
48.1% (233)
42.5% (435)
Away
51.6% (246)
45.5% (429)
By Period
Norris
Carlsson
P1
53.1%
45.3%
P2
49.2%
38.7%
P3
48.4%
48.5%
OT
0.0%
41.7%
Final 5 min
46.5%
38.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Norris
54.0%▲
51.0%
49.9%
Carlsson
32.0%▼
39.0%
44.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | OT | 00:53 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 3 | 10:05 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 2 | 15:40 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 00:44 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 11:10 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 14:37 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 11:57 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 11:50 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 08:34 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 02:41 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 02:26 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |