Scouting Report
Josh Norris holds a +9.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Barzal on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Norris wins 43.9% vs right-shot opponents — Barzal shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Norris 49.9% vs Barzal 41.9% (+9.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barzal 56.8%
Defensive zone
Barzal 57.1%
Neutral zone
Barzal 57.9%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 57.1%
42.9%
57.1%
Norris
Barzal
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Norris
Barzal
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
1
2
Norris
Barzal
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Norris
Barzal
Edge
Even Strength
50.5% (388)
40.9% (469)
+9.6%
Power Play
47.6% (84)
34.2% (38)
+13.4%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (7)
28.6% (7)
+14.3%
On penalty kill, Norris has a +14.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barzal shoots right. Norris is 43.9% vs right-shot opponents (157).
Norris shoots left. Barzal is 39.4% vs left-shot opponents (398).
Home / Away
Norris
Barzal
Home
48.1% (233)
39.2% (250)
Away
51.6% (246)
41.3% (264)
By Period
Norris
Barzal
P1
53.1%
46.3%
P2
49.2%
36.7%
P3
48.4%
38.5%
OT
0.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
46.5%
41.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Norris
54.0%▲
51.0%
49.9%
Barzal
44.0%▬
45.0%
40.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 14:53 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 09:53 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 17:01 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |