Scouting Report
Josh Norris holds a +9.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Marner on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Norris wins 43.9% vs right-shot opponents — Marner shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Norris 49.9% vs Marner 42.5% (+9.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Marner 56.0%
Defensive zone
Marner 56.9%
Neutral zone
Marner 58.4%
Result
Mitch Marner favored at 57.6%
42.4%
57.6%
Norris
Marner
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Norris
Marner
Last 5: Norris 2-3 Marner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Norris
1
0
Norris
Marner
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Marner
0
1
Norris
Marner
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Marner
1
2
Norris
Marner
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Norris
Marner
Edge
Even Strength
50.5% (388)
40.8% (316)
+9.7%
Power Play
47.6% (84)
40.0% (5)
+7.6%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (7)
25.0% (12)
+17.9%
On penalty kill, Norris has a +17.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Marner shoots right. Norris is 43.9% vs right-shot opponents (157).
Norris shoots left. Marner is 39.7% vs left-shot opponents (247).
Home / Away
Norris
Marner
Home
48.1% (233)
36.0% (186)
Away
51.6% (246)
45.6% (147)
By Period
Norris
Marner
P1
53.1%
40.7%
P2
49.2%
41.0%
P3
48.4%
38.6%
Final 5 min
46.5%
41.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Norris
54.0%▲
51.0%
49.9%
Marner
40.0%▼
41.5%
40.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 13:19 | Neutral | Mitch Marner |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 07:00 | Neutral | Mitch Marner |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 18:46 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 10:42 | Defensive | Mitch Marner |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 04:21 | Offensive | Josh Norris |