Scouting Report
Josh Norris holds a +10.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Marner on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Norris wins 53.6% vs right-shot opponents — Marner shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Norris 52.1% vs Marner 42.7% (+10.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Marner 66.1%
Defensive zone
Marner 66.8%
Neutral zone
Marner 67.4%
Result
Mitch Marner favored at 67.0%
33.0%
67.0%
Norris
Marner
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Norris
Marner
Last 6: Norris 2-4 Marner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Norris
1
0
Norris
Marner
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Marner
0
2
Norris
Marner
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Marner
1
2
Norris
Marner
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Norris
Marner
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (3,089)
41.7% (496)
+10.8%
Power Play
53.4% (412)
55.6% (18)
-2.2%
Penalty Kill
45.4% (240)
35.4% (65)
+10.0%
On even strength, Norris has a +10.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Marner shoots right. Norris is 53.6% vs right-shot opponents (1,321).
Norris shoots left. Marner is 39.3% vs left-shot opponents (399).
Home / Away
Norris
Marner
Home
53.1% (1,896)
38.0% (321)
Away
51.2% (1,845)
45.7% (258)
By Period
Norris
Marner
P1
55.5%
38.7%
P2
51.5%
41.5%
P3
50.1%
45.5%
OT
39.5%
40.0%
Final 5 min
53.3%
47.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Norris
54.0%▲
51.0%
52.2%
Marner
40.0%▼
41.5%
41.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 13:19 | Neutral | Mitch Marner |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 07:00 | Neutral | Mitch Marner |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 18:46 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 10:42 | Defensive | Mitch Marner |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 04:21 | Offensive | Josh Norris |
| Jan 15, 2021 | 1 | 18:40 | Defensive | Mitch Marner |