Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Norris wins 43.9% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Norris 49.9% vs MacKinnon 51.0% (-1.2%)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 60.7%
Defensive zone
Norris 60.9%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 50.6%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 50.1%
49.9%
50.1%
Norris
MacKinnon
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Norris
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
50.5% (388)
49.7% (1,038)
+0.8%
Power Play
47.6% (84)
63.7% (157)
-16.1%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (7)
34.4% (32)
+8.5%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +16.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Norris is 43.9% vs right-shot opponents (157).
Norris shoots left. MacKinnon is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (886).
Home / Away
Norris
MacKinnon
Home
48.1% (233)
53.1% (618)
Away
51.6% (246)
49.1% (609)
By Period
Norris
MacKinnon
P1
53.1%
49.3%
P2
49.2%
53.0%
P3
48.4%
50.7%
OT
0.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
46.5%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Norris
54.0%▲
51.0%
49.9%
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
51.1%