Scouting Report
Josh Norris holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Carpenter on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Norris wins 53.6% vs right-shot opponents — Carpenter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Norris 52.1% vs Carpenter 48.5% (+3.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Norris 68.3%
Defensive zone
Carpenter 75.5%
Neutral zone
Carpenter 57.3%
Result
Ryan Carpenter favored at 56.2%
43.8%
56.2%
Norris
Carpenter
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Norris
Carpenter
Last 7: Norris 3-4 Carpenter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Norris
1
0
Norris
Carpenter
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carpenter
0
1
Norris
Carpenter
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carpenter
2
3
Norris
Carpenter
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Norris
Carpenter
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (3,089)
49.6% (2,027)
+2.9%
Power Play
53.4% (412)
41.5% (41)
+11.9%
Penalty Kill
45.4% (240)
43.9% (467)
+1.5%
On power play, Norris has a +11.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carpenter shoots right. Norris is 53.6% vs right-shot opponents (1,321).
Norris shoots left. Carpenter is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,840).
Home / Away
Norris
Carpenter
Home
53.1% (1,896)
51.2% (1,290)
Away
51.2% (1,845)
45.5% (1,245)
By Period
Norris
Carpenter
P1
55.5%
49.6%
P2
51.5%
47.7%
P3
50.1%
48.0%
OT
39.5%
55.6%
Final 5 min
53.3%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Norris
54.0%▲
51.0%
52.2%
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2022 | 2 | 18:24 | Offensive | Josh Norris |
| Mar 12, 2022 | 2 | 15:49 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Mar 12, 2022 | 2 | 15:41 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Mar 12, 2022 | 2 | 09:07 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Mar 12, 2022 | 2 | 02:39 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Mar 12, 2022 | 1 | 08:46 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Mar 12, 2022 | 1 | 07:45 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |