Scouting Report
Justin Danforth holds a +14.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Smith on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Danforth wins 46.3% vs right-shot opponents — Smith shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Danforth 49.8% vs Smith 39.9% (+14.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Smith 59.6%
Defensive zone
Danforth 88.4%
Neutral zone
Danforth 61.8%
Result
Justin Danforth favored at 62.8%
62.8%
37.2%
Danforth
Smith
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Danforth
Smith
Last 5: Danforth 3-2 Smith
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Danforth
1
0
Danforth
Smith
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Danforth
1
0
Danforth
Smith
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Smith
1
2
Danforth
Smith
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Danforth
Smith
Edge
Even Strength
51.8% (1,018)
33.5% (194)
+18.3%
Power Play
50.0% (36)
48.1% (27)
+1.9%
Penalty Kill
40.1% (207)
50.0% (2)
-9.9%
On even strength, Danforth has a +18.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smith shoots right. Danforth is 46.3% vs right-shot opponents (324).
Danforth shoots right. Smith is 32.8% vs right-shot opponents (58).
Home / Away
Danforth
Smith
Home
51.4% (619)
33.6% (128)
Away
48.3% (642)
37.9% (95)
By Period
Danforth
Smith
P1
49.1%
37.1%
P2
51.4%
33.8%
P3
48.3%
33.9%
OT
64.3%
100.0%
Final 5 min
52.3%
34.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Danforth
54.0%▲
51.5%
49.8%
Smith
36.0%▬
37.0%
35.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Justin Danforth |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 2 | 15:58 | Offensive | Justin Danforth |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 2 | 03:49 | Defensive | Justin Danforth |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Will Smith |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Will Smith |