Scouting Report
Lars Eller holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Eller on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Sourdif wins 46.0% vs left-shot opponents — Eller shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sourdif 45.6% vs Eller 50.5% (-5.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Sourdif 73.8%
Defensive zone
Sourdif 74.1%
Neutral zone
Sourdif 74.3%
Result
Justin Sourdif favored at 74.0%
74.0%
26.0%
Sourdif
Eller
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Sourdif
Eller
Last 5: Sourdif 1-4 Eller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Eller
1
2
Sourdif
Eller
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
0
1
Sourdif
Eller
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Eller
0
1
Sourdif
Eller
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sourdif
Eller
Edge
Even Strength
44.3% (585)
51.1% (10,321)
-6.8%
Power Play
50.0% (24)
52.8% (621)
-2.8%
Penalty Kill
61.5% (13)
46.6% (1,759)
+14.9%
On penalty kill, Sourdif has a +14.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Eller shoots left. Sourdif is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (441).
Sourdif shoots right. Eller is 49.9% vs right-shot opponents (4,587).
Home / Away
Sourdif
Eller
Home
43.6% (321)
51.4% (6,122)
Away
46.2% (301)
49.7% (6,607)
By Period
Sourdif
Eller
P1
41.9%
51.2%
P2
44.3%
50.1%
P3
47.9%
50.2%
OT
100.0%
56.7%
Final 5 min
42.9%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sourdif
36.0%▼
41.0%
44.9%
Eller
44.0%▼
51.5%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2026 | 1 | 08:49 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 18:34 | Offensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 14:22 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 12:22 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 02:31 | Defensive | Lars Eller |