Justin Sourdif vs Oliver Kapanen
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Oliver Kapanen holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Kapanen on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Sourdif wins 42.0% vs right-shot opponents — Kapanen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sourdif 45.6% vs Kapanen 46.8% (-1.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kapanen 65.8%
Defensive zone
Sourdif 56.8%
Neutral zone
Kapanen 63.3%
Result
Oliver Kapanen favored at 57.0%
43.0%
57.0%
Sourdif
Kapanen
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Sourdif
Kapanen
Last 6: Sourdif 4-2 Kapanen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sourdif
1
0
Sourdif
Kapanen
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sourdif
2
0
Sourdif
Kapanen
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kapanen
1
2
Sourdif
Kapanen
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sourdif
Kapanen
Edge
Even Strength
44.3% (585)
46.3% (572)
-2.0%
Power Play
50.0% (24)
50.9% (53)
-0.9%
Penalty Kill
61.5% (13)
39.5% (38)
+22.0%
On penalty kill, Sourdif has a +22.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kapanen shoots right. Sourdif is 42.0% vs right-shot opponents (181).
Sourdif shoots right. Kapanen is 48.8% vs right-shot opponents (170).
Home / Away
Sourdif
Kapanen
Home
43.6% (321)
46.3% (348)
Away
46.2% (301)
46.3% (315)
By Period
Sourdif
Kapanen
P1
41.9%
41.7%
P2
44.3%
49.6%
P3
47.9%
47.5%
OT
100.0%
25.0%
Final 5 min
42.9%
44.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sourdif
36.0%▼
41.0%
44.9%
Kapanen
32.0%▼
47.0%
46.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 18:35 | Neutral | Oliver Kapanen |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 15:54 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 04:54 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 18:34 | Neutral | Oliver Kapanen |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 16:12 | Offensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 1 | 08:36 | Neutral | Justin Sourdif |