Scouting Report
Justin Sourdif holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Greene on neutral-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Sourdif wins 42.0% vs right-shot opponents — Greene shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sourdif 45.6% vs Greene 43.9% (+1.9%)
H2H factor
Greene leads 8-4 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Greene 54.5%
Defensive zone
Greene 58.0%
Neutral zone
Greene 63.0%
Result
Ryan Greene favored at 59.3%
40.7%
59.3%
Sourdif
Greene
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
8
(12 meetings)
4
8
Sourdif
Greene
Last 10: Sourdif 4-6 Greene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Greene
1
3
Sourdif
Greene
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sourdif
2
0
Sourdif
Greene
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Greene
1
5
Sourdif
Greene
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sourdif
Greene
Edge
Even Strength
44.3% (585)
43.6% (512)
+0.7%
Power Play
50.0% (24)
46.8% (62)
+3.2%
Penalty Kill
61.5% (13)
40.1% (167)
+21.4%
On penalty kill, Sourdif has a +21.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Greene shoots right. Sourdif is 42.0% vs right-shot opponents (181).
Sourdif shoots right. Greene is 43.3% vs right-shot opponents (187).
Home / Away
Sourdif
Greene
Home
43.6% (321)
47.4% (382)
Away
46.2% (301)
38.4% (359)
By Period
Sourdif
Greene
P1
41.9%
46.8%
P2
44.3%
37.6%
P3
47.9%
45.2%
OT
100.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
42.9%
42.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sourdif
36.0%▼
41.0%
44.9%
Greene
26.0%▼
34.0%
43.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 9, 2026 | 3 | 15:28 | Neutral | Ryan Greene |
| Jan 9, 2026 | 1 | 15:00 | Offensive | Ryan Greene |
| Jan 9, 2026 | 1 | 04:03 | Neutral | Ryan Greene |
| Jan 9, 2026 | 1 | 01:06 | Neutral | Justin Sourdif |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 10:35 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 03:23 | Offensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Greene |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 18:45 | Neutral | Ryan Greene |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 13:31 | Offensive | Ryan Greene |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 06:56 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 02:39 | Offensive | Ryan Greene |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Greene |